Large-scale transport projects: tools to transform qualitative into quantitative assessment

Decision-making tools for large-scale transport projects are the subject of research in this paper. The purpose paper is to improve decision-making techniques loosely structured problems and demonstrate results experimental calculations on example a project. methods system analysis: expert technologies that being improved course research; method scenarios; construction problem hierarchy, goal tree; criteria priorities; theory (Wald, Savage, Hurwicz, Bayes, Laplace). study has established three assessing effectiveness Barentskomur railway project (the connecting Indiga port Surgut); it revealed priorities different scenarios external environment development: optimistic, pessimistic, most probable quantitative scale. survey experts was carried out. A new approach significance general been proposed. estimations two alternatives realization various received. have led conclusion 2 should be implemented, because there high degree uncertainty world, case “cautious” Wald criterion used. Not only do we need con-sider immerse those scenarios, but also consider impact scenario, due its